Here's how it's gonna go down...

This pretty much sums up where I see the economy going in the next 1 to 5 years.  We are now one year into what I call The Phoenix Great Depression.  I've spent three months trying to figure out how things will play out, in the Big Picture, over the next 4-5 years.  But no one wants to hear bad news.  So I'm just going to give a quick outline on where I see things going, and leave it here.  I'm going to focus more on building new ideas, the economic collapse will happen as it happens.  We'll see how things actually play out...  "Oh the humanity..."

Late October 2020-  The Fed buys everything possible in a frenzy to keep propping up the U.S. stock markets to help President Trump win the election.  This is being combined with voter suppression efforts of an epic scale.  I'm one of the tens of thousands (or more) American citizens who have been removed from the voter rolls, for no apparent reason (except how I'm expected to vote).  The stock markets MIGHT stay at near record levels until the election.  But the month of October has this thing for the stock markets, for some reason.  Let's just say things will be tense.  A big slide down, before the election,  would not surprise me.  The Republican Party us older folks grew up with has been replaced by the openly racist "Trumpublican" Party.  As this power structure continues to blow apart, like the Hindenburg above, the drive to prop up stock markets, at any cost, will fade.  If you look at the tail of this once mighty (looking) airship, you'll see a reference to the mentality that's been dominating U.S. politics on the Right, for quite a while now...

November 3rd, 2020- In the most corrupted and manipulated U.S. election in modern history (which is a high bar, after the 2016 and 2000 elections), I think Joe Biden still manages to win, despite a myriad of voter suppression attacks by the Right, like we've never seen before.  As the national election results become clear (perhaps over a few days), The Fed can no longer keep the stocks propped up.  There would be a major stock crash no matter who wins, but you can only create so many fiat dollars (as a long history has proven) before things start to implode.   The stock markets begin to slide dramatically in November/December 2020.  They drop to about Dow 18,600 and Nasdaq 7,000.  The Fed rushes in (even more than now, because they are continually "rushing in" already).  The markets bounce back 20% to 40% from those numbers, then largely stagnate for a year or two.  There's nothing left to prop them up.  Trillions of dollars in wealth disappear over the winter of 2020-2021.

Late 2020/Jan.-June 2021- We see a massive second wave of Covid-19 spring back up, during the traditional flu season, this winter.  The Student Loan Asset Backed Security Market (SLABS), the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities market (CMBS), and the Collateralized Loan Obligation market (CLO) collapse, because anywhere from 10% to 90% of the underlying loans are not being repaid now.  These are our "subprime mortgage" markets this time around, providing a trigger like in 2008.  We get a 2008-like collapse event that brings the world banking system (even farther down) to its knees.  There is little The Fed and other central banks can do to slow this crisis, at that point, because they created the damn crisis in the first place, and have done everything possible to prop the economy up for 12 years now, since 2008.  Ultimately, economic "gravity" wins, and inflated prices and propped up markets inevitably collapse at some point.  We reach that point, in early to mid 2021.

January 2021- September 2021- Commercial real estate collapses.  Credit markets tighten, it becomes almost impossible for anyone to get a loan, private individual or businesses.  Then residential real estate markets collapse, starting in major, tech heavy cities, and then spreads nationwide.  Yet rents stay high, in major cities.  Millions of Americans struggle on the verge of homelessness.  Massive protests rise up to forgive student loan debt, and for rent strikes.  Meanwhile, another 200,000 Americans, or more, die after contracting Covid-19.  Our initial abysmal response to the pandemic, combined with the lack of simple precautions by millions of people, and the traditional flu season, lead to a severe second waves of infections of Covid-19, and deaths, during the winter of 2020-2021.

The Democratic led White House, Senate, and House of Representatives approve massive relief bills for the actual American people.  Calls for a real world healthcare program follow.  (If I'm wrong, and Trump somehow gets re-installed, America collapses in this period, much like the Soviet Union in 1989).  

May 2021- December 2021- Amid the other turmoil, at some point in this period, most likely, a safe, viable vaccine for Covid-19 comes out, mass inoculations begin.  By late 2021 or more likely mid-2022, the vast majority of Americans have been inoculated.  But the economy is still in turmoil.  There will be a wave of consumer spending as business (those still in business) "goes back to normal."  This helps, but is far from the innovation and true growth needed to get the economy going again. 

2022- We begin the long, slow "rebirth," out of the ashes of the worst economic crisis since the Civil War.  Several major, well known corporations have collapsed by this point.  Newer, younger start-ups are vying to take their places .  Those who have some money, or can come up with creative financing solutions, snap up bargains in real estate.  A handful of colleges and universities will collapse in 2021, this trend grows into the College Apocalypse, as higher education tries to figure out a viable model, that students can afford, going into the future.  At least 30% to 40% of current colleges go out of business, or merge with other schools, in the 2020's.  

2023 to 2025- The long, slow, rebuilding continues.  A few of today's tech giants (Facebook/Instagram excluded, they turn into the new "MySpace," and are being replaced at this point), and a whole bunch of young tech start-ups lead the economy into the future.  Millions of people, unable to find any "normal" jobs for months or years, turn to creating micro and small businesses.  Most struggle for while, but many begin to gain traction as the U.S. economy rebuilds, from the ground up.  With any luck, The Fed is toast at this point, and some currency that is actually Constitutional is created.  That's unlikely, but we can hope. 

OK, that's where I see things going... in a nutshell.  Have a nice day.  ; )

Blogger's note, 6/7/2021- The Fed is still throwing $2 to $3 Trillion a year at the economy to prop it up, so my predictions will be delayed.  Another 20% to 40% stock crash WILL come, and real estate nationwide will tank, maybe late 2021-2022.  

The main thing to remember for the remainder of 2021, 2022, and 2023 is "a little inflation, inflation, high inflation and then hyper inflation.  Then they'll try to shove a "crypto" dollar at us, that no one will want.  Remember, blockchain has value because the blockchain itself can be searched and checked, but they'll try to hide the actual crypto dollar blockchain in a "black box."  

2021-2023- Inflation (prices rise (3%-4% a year)

High Inflation (prices rise 3% to 4% a month)

Hyper inflation (prices rise 3% to 4% a week... 

then maybe a day)  

That's where we're headed... 

Businesses that were started in recessions

Yes, it seems totally counter-intuitive, but a lot of businesses, including several major ones, got started in recessions and depressions.  Chrystie at AppSumo talks about a few of them, mostly recent tech companies.

An up to date look at commerical real estate with the Kwak Brothers: October 7, 2020

Daniel Kwak interviews commercoal real estate investor/developer Jerome Maldanado on where commercial real estate is right now.  Again, it's hard to get good information on today's fast changing markets, so here's an up-to-date look at commercial real estate. 

Is real estate as hot as the recent weather? L.A. & Orange County real estate update: September 2020

As the Covid-19 period dragged on over the past 6-7 months, so many things have been happening so fast, economically, that it's been hard to get good information on things like regional real estate markets.  So I started looking for local people doing videos.  Christian at Wire Associates puts out solid videos, taking a look at the Los Angeles and Orange County markets.  Here's the latest update on residential real estate here in SoCal.  Surprisingly, the market is still pretty hot.  Will it stay that way?  What the video to get his thoughts. 

Are we in the Next Great Depression?

Have we begun "The Next Great Depression?"  Personally, I think we are in what will ultimately be a Great Depression, and we have crossed the threshold (10%+ GDP drop) that makes this offically an economic depression.  But will things get as grim as this video depicts?  I'll let you decided.  This is a really depressing comparison between our world today, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. 

89% of Federal student loans ARE NOT being paid back right now

 According to this CNBC article, from October 7th, only 11% of people with federal student loans are paying those loans back, on time, right now.  Due to the forebearance offer, 89% of people are not paying back their federal student loans.  So what happens to the SLABS investments being funded by the payments of those millions of student loans (see previous post)?  Good question.

Where student loans go... SLABS explained

When you ask most people what SLABS are, they tend to reply, "That's the big concrete thing under my house, right?"  Yeah.  That concrete slab (if you don't have a basement), is one kind of slab.  But the SLABS explained in this short, and very well explained video, are Student Loan Asset Back Securities.  

These are the investments that are created from a whole bunch of student loans.  If nearly everyone is paying their student loans back on time, they're quite safe.  But we're in weird times, and not everyone's paying their student loans back on time.  The problem I see with SLABS is that they're nearly identical to the subprime Mortgage Backed Securities that crashed, and brought the banking system to its knees in 2008.  Except that there are over $1.6 trillion in student loans, as opposed to $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages in 2008.  $1.3 trillion of those student loans are through the federal government, the rest are from private lenders. 

George Washington University enrollment down 17% due to pandemic

 George Washington University, right in the nation's capital, has seen enrollment drop 17% this year, due to the pandemic, according to this recent Bloomberg article.  Colleges and universities nationwide struggle with the dilemma, have students on campus, and risk disease transmission, or have online classes, and try to justify tuition costs as students learn form home. 

Seth Godin: 10/5/2020 interview- Re-thinking your business in this environment

Brand spankin' new Seth Godin interview, from 10/5/2020.  Seth Godin has been marketing on the internet since 1989, before it was "the internet."  He gets it, and he gets how it has changed business.  Thirty years later, thousands of business still haven't learned the basics Seth has been teaching for decades now, on how marketing has changed with new technology and social norms.  When a major crisis, like this current issue, comes along, Seth is the first guy I want to hear new input from, followed closely by people like Vaynermedia CEO/keynote speaker Gary Vaynerchuk, and economic development expert Richard Florida, and a handful of others.  

Very simply, interviews like this one, with Seth, get you to rethink your approach to business, rather than just think how to get more clients.  In this fast changing, and extremely challenging environment, that makes all the difference.  If you still want to be in business 5 or 10 years form now, watch or listen to this interview.  Then answer the questions Seth asks, in a way that makes sense for your business.

Vaynermedia CEO and new media advertising expert, Gary Vaynerchuk on Tik Tok and social media in today's world

Pure and simple, Gary Vaynerchuk is one of the top few people to listen to, when figuring out where consumers attention is today, and what platforms and spaces would be best to advertise and create content on for your business.  In this 4 1/2 minute clip from September 22, 2020, Gary gives his thoughts on the Tik Tok controversy, and how businesses should think of advertising in today's world.

We are now 1 year into the economic crisis: The Phoenix Great Depression

Here's a Bloomberg news report from September 17, 2019 talking about some banking thing called the Repo Market.  I'm a geek on this stuff, and I didn't know what the Repo Market really was.  Here's a short video explaining the Repo Market.  But this seizing up of the little known (to average people) Repo Market was the real start of the depression (yes, it's technically a depression now) we're in.  Most people paid little attention.  But the Federal Reserve (of New York) had to rush in and create $50 billion+ in one day, to keep the banking system from crashing.  Then it had to create more money shortly after, and it became an ongoing bailout, day after day, week after week, flying under most people's radar.  Then, the virus hit our shores, which became the bad news the stock market couldn't ignore, and then came February/March stock market crash, followed by the business shutdown, which is when everyone realized there were serious issues in the U.S. (and world, economy). 

  "The Phoenix Great Depression" is the name I gave to this economic crisis, which I've been blogging about for three years.  I have been watching some ultra-long term trends and cycles play out, and could tell in late 2017-2018, that "the next recession" was really going to be a serious one, and possibly a long, full blown, depression or great depression.  I coined the term, "The Phoenix Great Recession" in my old, personal blog, (Steve Emig: The White Bear)  in October 2019.  Nobody was ready to hear the word "depression" yet.  Most people still aren't. 

Basically, The Repo Market functions kind of like a pawn shop for banks.  A bank needs a few million bucks to make its quotas for the night's books.  So it sells something of value to another bank, usually U.S. treasury bills/bonds/notes.  The borrowing bank gets the money to cover its short term needs, and it buys back the T-bills (or whatever) the next day, or maybe two days later, and pays the lending bank interest.  "Repo" stands for re-purchase, not repossession.

What happened last September is that some banks (probably part of the "shadow banking system"), looked so sketchy, that nobody wanted to lend to them, so they charged much higher interest than normal.  That seized up this overnight market, and freaked out Big Banking insiders, and The Fed came to the rescue.  The Repo Market played a big role in keeping Lehman Brothers alive back in 2008, before if finally became insolvent and closed up, the turning point in the 2007-2009 Great Recession.  So this time around, The Fed started bailing the system out, and it's been bailing the system out ever since.  The money they've created out of nowhere, and "injected" into the banking system is the money that's driven the rise in stocks and real estate since last year.  The markets aren't rising because of solid, fundamental reasons, there's just a ton of money for banks to gamble with right now.  The Fed can't keep doing what they're doing forever, without completely devaluing the dollar until it  loses all value.  Right now the whole system is being propped up, and nobody knows a good way out of this mess.  So that's where we are a year into this economic crisis. 

Smokin' real estate markets during a recession? Yep. Kwak Bros. look at L.A., Austin, and Charlotte, NC right now

Looking for good info on what real estate is doing these days, in this crazy time period, I ran into the Kwak Brothers videos on YouTube.  I've watched a few now now, and I've become a fan.  They share solid information and good insights, at a time when things are changing fast, and good info is hard to come by.  Here's their look at three cities, ranging from my area in L.A., to the ever popular tech hub of Austin, to mid-Atlantic region metro Charlotte, North Carolina.

The first takeaway I have is... WOW.  We ARE in a textbook depression (10%+ GDP drop in Q2), but L.A. and Austin real estate markets are smokin' hot, and Charlotte is very solid.  Why?  For that answer we need to go to Uncle Powell at The Fed.  They've pumped trillions of newly created dollars into the economy to keep it from imploding since last September.  This took us down the economic rabbit hole.

We have horrific economic problems in places, like 20 million or more people still newly unemployed, more layoffs coming, and tens of millions of people who are struggling to pay their rent or mortgages.  But at the same time, the upper end of the wealth spectrum is awash in money that needs to go into some investments.  Ultimately this is buying time to try to find some fix of the underlying issues, and the several speculative bubbles we have will pop, at some point.  But for right now, lots of people who have good incomes, after 2 or 3 months stuck inside, are charging out to buy homes and investment properties, since interest rates are a bit lower, and there's euphoria in the markets.  There seems to be a Millennial FOMO thing happening, driving some of this.  We are truly in an economic Never Never Land, a place we've never been as a society in the business and investment worlds. And weird shit is happening.  Like rent strikes and overheated real estate markets at the same time.  

Personally, I think these hot markets are short-lived, and we'll see bubbles popping in the next few months.  Looks like Robert Kwak feels the same, particularly about Austin.  Anyhow, some good, and unexpected, real estate info on three major cities, and a feel for where the country is, to some degree.  I recommend checking out other videos on the Kwak Brothers channel, every one I've watched is solid, and well worth the time to watch.

It's Labor Day weekend 2020: So what IS the REAL unemployment rate?

While the stock markets began to correct a bit, from their insane highs last Friday, "good news" came out.  The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%.  So what does that mean?  Most people think that means 91.6% of American adults have a job, right?  Actually, no, that's not even close to true.  

The 8.4% number is considered the "official" unemployment rate by Washington and the major media, it's the red line is this chart above.  The reason is because it's the lowest rate, and it looks the best in TV and web reports.  That 8.4% number is the U-3 number, for August 2020, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The problem with the U-3 unemployment number is that is doesn't include a lot of people who are not working, in fact doesn't include most of the people who are not working.  In any "normal" time, unemployment at 8.4% would be catastrophic, economists want to see real unemployment at about 3% to 4%.  So this U-3 more than number is double that.  That's bad, horrible, in fact, in "normal times."  But in a year when close to 50 million lost their jobs in a few months, most of them"temporarily" lost, 8.4% is LESS BAD, than the 15% a couple of months ago.  The problem is, the U-3 number doesn't count about 3/4 of the U.S. adults who are actually not working.

There's another unemployment number, the U-6 number, and it's just as official as the U-3 number, and it's also put out by the BLS, that's the U-6 unemployment rate.   The U-6 number dropped to 14.24% for August 2020, and that's the gray line above.  What's the difference?  The U-3 number basically counts people with traditional jobs who applied for unemployment insurance, that's all.  The U-6 number takes that, and adds in people who are forced to work part time, because they can't find full time work, and people who have been discouraged from looking for work in immediate future, they don't think they can find any job soon.  So this U-6 number, makes more sense, it's every bit as official as the U-3 number, and it tells us that over 14% of working people in the U.S. aren't working right now.  

So what's that scary blue line above, that figures U.S. unemployment at 27 to 28%?  That's the number by this website, shadowstats.com, and it takes the U-6 number, and adds in the "long term discouraged" workers, those are American adults of working age, who simply have completely given up looking for work altogether.  They either don't think they can ever find a job again, or they have some way to survive without working.  

The total American "workforce," is just under164 million people, out of the total 328 million (+/-) Americans.  The shadow stats number is the closest to actually showing us how many of the people in the "workforce" are not working right now.  So if we figure 27% of the "workforce" isn't working right now, that's 44.5 million American adults NOT working, out of 164 million.  If you go through all the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, you'll find that well over 44.5 million American adults are NOT working right now.  Here, dig through the numbers yourself.  Here's the official stats for August 2020.  If you look at the "participation rate" on this chart for August 2020,it says 61.7%.  That means 38.3% of the "American workforce" isn't working right now.  Some of those are housewives who take care of the kids, or dads doing that job, and some others who don't work a job or business.  So the shadowstats number, roughly 27%, is the closest to  a "people who should be able to find work, but can't" number, which is what the unemployment number is supposed to be.

This number doesn't include gig workers, and microbusinesses (1 person business), and small businesses that have lost a lot of their income, but are technically working.  So even the 27% number doesn't really give us a good look at how bad of a hit the economic crash (which started with the Repo market in Sept. 2019) AND the Covid-19 shutdown, have hit real world working (and potentially working) Americans.  

There's a large group, 7 million + men, and a growing number of women, American adults, who don't even try to find work.  This group seems to be living largely on YOUR tax dollars, permanently, getting government checks, from Social Security Disability and other sources.  The only person who has looked into this growing group is Nicolas Eberstadt, in his book, Men Without Work.  This is a big part of the long term unemployed, and pretty much no one is studying this major American issue right now.  And we really need to.  Here's a short news clip on his work (February 2017), and here's a full speech by Nicolas Eberstadt, explaining this issue in detail, from 2017.

Robert Kiyosaki: Money and Debt 101

This quick little compilation video, featuring an interview with Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiysaki, really gives a good explanation of money and debt in five minutes.  This is a real quick video, and there's a lot more detail to the whole picture, obviously, but this is a great overview of how money and debt function in society.  It you're new to investing, or are confused by all the jargon people throw around, this helps begin to explain things.

The Bubbles still left to pop- With Robert Kiyosaki, Harvey Dent, Stan Harley

Robert Kiyosaki, best known as author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, does a regular (weekly, I think) radio show/podcast about different aspects of money, investing, and the economy.  He gets some really good, really smart people on this show.  This is a scary, but very good show, with Harry Dent and Stan Harley talking about the current bubbles in stocks and real estate.  These guys are seeing historically economic BIG bubbles that are getting close to popping.

"The greater the bubble, the greater the burst." 

- Harry Dent, in the interview above

It's late August 2020, as I'm writing this.  In my opinion, we are now 11 months into what I'm calling The Phoenix Great Depression.  That's my own term, but I see this as the beginning of a 5 to 7 year (minimum) economic downturn.  There are a couple of long term trends and cycles, and several shorter term ones, that have brought me to my conclusion.  This current crisis started with the seizing up of the Repo Market, in the banking industry, in September of 2019.  The Federal Reserve (aka The Fed), had to begin injecting billions of dollars, weekly, then daily, into the financial system, to simply keep the banking system from collapsing.  That slipped under most people's radar.

Then, the Covid-19 coronavirus (aka Sars Cov-2), hit U.S. shores, which was the "black swan" event that tipped the U.S. stock markets into collapse.  As we all know, the shutdowns have led to all kinds of problems, millions have lost their jobs, mandatory business shutdowns, and tens of millions of people now struggling to simply pay rent.  I saw a huge economic collapse coming, and have been blogging about it for three years.  

The two guys in the interview above, Harry Dent and Stan Harley, have come so very similar conclusions, using completely different cycles and models.  One of the things that is amazing to me about our current economic mess, is that several, really smart economic thinkers, investors, and forecasters, have come to the same conclusion about a huge peak and then crash, right now, in this 2019-2022 period.  But all of these thinkers (myself included), have come to very similar conclusions, from very different forecasting directions.  We're all looking at different data sets, different cycles and theories, but coming to the conclusion that this is going to be a historically huge economic downturn.  You can easily discredit me, I'm a bum, but it's hard to deny the thinking of Robert, Harry, and Stan above, as well as Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers, and several others.  Even internet marketing expert and entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk has been waiting for this collapse, and has talked about it.

That said, this interview above is one of the most intelligent looks at what's happening in the economy these days.  If you're interested in running a business in the next few years, and/or investing, watch/listen to this interview above.  It's a lot to take in, so maybe watch it a couple times, or until it begins to make sense.  

Yesterday, I predicted that the Nasdaq would drop before 8,000, before the November 3rd U.S. presidential election, and I predicted really low numbers for the Dow and the S&P 500 as well.  All conventional wisdom, all common sense right now, says it's completely INSANE to think that The Fed would let the stock markets drop before the election.  The Fed's main job right now (in many people's eyes), is to get Donald Trump re-elected.  I know my prediction seems completely nuts.  My January 26th prediction that the Dow would drop below 19,000, was also completely nuts, according to conventional wisdom then.  Yet, it happened.  

My reasoning for yesterday's crazy prediction is that we are now sitting on several financial bubbles, any of which could collapse at any time, triggering the collapse of the rest.  When one really begins to go, it will start to topple the others.  That toppling will lead to a world financial system wide crisis, and that will bring down the currently over-inflated stock markets.  Here's a quick list of businesses and markets that will hit crisis point, could reach a collapse point, and trigger a mess that would bring down stocks, and everything else.

-SLABS (Student Loan Asset Backed Securities) market- There's no good data, but probably 50%-70% of student loans are being paid right now.  When this market goes, everything topples.

-CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) market- Commercial real estate?  Yeah, not good these days.  When this market collapses, like subprime MBS and CDO's in 2008, other things start collapsing as well.

-CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) market- CDO-type investments made from business loans.  Business loans in 2020?  Yeah, not a good bet after the Covid-19 shutdowns.  Smaller than the two above, but if this collapses, it will start the other two above toppling.

-Deutsche Bank- It's been struggling for many years.  If it goes bankrupt, it will send shock waves through the worldwide financial system.  That will start other houses of cards falling.

-A major banking/corporate bankruptcy in the U.S.-  Boeing is known to be struggling.  GE is known to be struggling.  Capital One is known to be struggling.  Many other major corporations are loaded with debt and struggling under the crazy conditions the pandemic and 2020 has thrown at us.  If one MAJOR corporation goes bankrupt, especially one tied to banking, it will send shock waves through the financial system, and these other things begin to topple.

-Serious evidence of a likely Joe Biden presidential win-  If the polls turn dramatically in Biden's favor, Wall Street will react, believing much less money will be thrown at them in the future, sending markets down.  The stock markets are completely detached from the real world economy, and from reality, at this point.  We're at a Tulip Mania level, and there WILL be a huge correction sometime.  Personally, I think a Democrat presidential victory is likely, and is basically our only hope of survival as a nation and democracy.  Just for the record, I'm an independent, and not a fan of Joe Biden.  But we need a semi-functional government, and less money thrown at Wall Street, and more at the American Public, to get through the current, and the coming crises.  Short term, the markets will throw a temper tantrum, and drop significantly, giving us the much needed correction.  In the long term, this will help the economy, bringing all types of assets down to real world values.  This alone could drop the stock markets before the election.  My personal thinking right now is that one of the things above, not a big Biden lead in the polls, will be the cause of the drop, but huge poll numbers for Biden COULD send markets down pre-election.

-There are many other things that could send all these houses of cards tumbling before the election.  Bad Q3 earnings for major businesses, major commercial real estate numbers dropping significantly, national residential real estate numbers dropping significantly, a large virus surge in a major city, causing another short term shutdown.  Lots of things COULD happen, any one of which would send all these houses of cards toppling down.  My bet is that one of these will happen before the election, and will cause massive chaos in other areas, which will ultimately bring down the hyper-inflated stock prices.  There are just too many possible triggers of potential collapse for The Fed to continue to prop everything up for two more months.  This is very similar to my thinking in January.  

I know this is a very controversial call, we'll see how things play out.

Prediction: The next stock market collapse will come BEFORE the election

What goes up, must come down.  A little Blood, Sweat & Tears (lots of tears), for you today.  

I'm back from a few days of not thinking about the economy, and the depression we are now 11 months into.  Ip'm utting my ass on the line again, with some hard number, hard date predictions.  Here they are.

The Nasdaq will drop below 8,000 points BEFORE November 3rd, 2020

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 20,000 points BEFORE November 3rd, 2020.

The S&P 500 will drop below 2,500 points BEFORE November 3rd

Call if the Trump Dump, if you need a catchy nickname. Or not, he didn't cause this, he just helped make it worse.

Will these ridiculous predictions come true?  Of course not, as anyone in the market right now.  "It will never go down!"  Right?  We'll see.  

By the way, here are my last set of ridiculous predictions.  No one in any serious position of expertise thought ANY of these would happen in 2020 when I wrote this post.  Three of the nine predictions have come true, and they were all for calendar year 2020, so there's four months left to see if any of the others happen.  Once again, let's hope I'm wrong...

Remember to vote for someone, for every office open, on November 3rd.   

A few days off...

 

 

 I'm taking a few days off from thinking and writing about economic stuff...  I don't expect anything overly huge to happen in the next few days...  Back in a few.

 

Warren Buffet sold all his Goldman Sachs stock? But they run the world...

This video talks about the recent stock trades of Berkshire Hathaway, the investment business headed by legendary investor Warren Buffet, and his lesser known partner, Charlie Munger.  If you go to about 1:12 in the video, you can pause it and read the list.  

Way back in the early 1990's, as a geeky, 20-something, BMX freestyler guy, I wanted to be ridiculously rich.  Like most young guys, I thought that if I could find a way to become rich quickly, I could avoid working lame jobs, and do what I wanted all day, which was mostly riding my BMX bike.  

Unlike most young guys, I started reading and learning about real estate, money, economics, and all things money related.  One thing I began to do was study the Forbes 400 magazine every year.  That was a pretty new thing back then, and had been coming out annually for 6 or 8 years when I first picked on up.  The Forbes 400 is an issue of Forbes magazine where they listed the 400 richest people in the United States, how much those people were worth, and two or three paragraphs about each person.  It comes out each fall.  Reading the Forbes 400, year after year, was incredibly enlightening in a financial sense.  First I learned that about 1/3 of the 400 richest people inherited their money.  So the first lesson, if you want to get rich really quick, is to find one of those people with a huge inheritance, and marry them.  That didn't appeal to me.  There were no hot, young, Kylie Jenner types on the list then.  

The next lesson in the early 1990's, was that most of the major fortunes were families who owned old, well known, industrial companies, like Levi Strauss, Seagrams, and M&M/Mars candy, businesses like that.  In the early 1990's, tech billionaires were a new thing, and there were only a few.  Most of the fortunes were from old, well established, industrial age companies, ones that were still primarily owned by one family.  Another big category then was real estate tycoons, largely self-made developers who bought lots of apartment buildings over their lifetimes.  No, not Donald Trump, he was (and still is) anything BUT self-made.  As we know now, his dad set him up in business, and he's been propped up by his late father, others ever since.  But guys like Donald Bren with the Irvine Company, and some other New York real estate magnates then, actually did build real estate empires, and become super rich.

One of the biggest surprises I learned from studying those early Forbes 400 magazines, was that only one guy (later his partner Charlie Munger made the list), Warren Buffet, actually became super rich from investing in stocks.  One guy.  That's it out of the 400 richest Americans.  As it turns out, investing in the stock market is actually one of the worst ways to try and become super rich.  Stocks have their place, in "normal" times.  But they get sketchy during recessions and depressions, particularly for inexperienced investors and speculators.  The vast majority of the super rich back then, and now, built a huge business, and then took that already successful business public, so everyone could buy stock shares in it.  The billionaires of the world, old and new, made their billions by taking a large company public.  Buffet did that to a degree, but primarily built the nation's third biggest fortune by investing in stocks of other businesses.

 Even more interesting, Buffet and Munger are the most boring kind of investors that exist.  They spend their days reading, back home in Omaha, Nebraska.  They research all kinds of companies, and try to find established businesses with well known brand names (like Coca-Cola or Dairy Queen).  Then they watch the markets, day by day.  When a recession, or some kind of downturn hits, the everyday stock traders would freak out, and often sell lots of shares of a perfectly good company, really cheap.  The market panic days are what Warren and Charlie lived for, and still live for.  Basically, they had a list of companies they thought were solid in business and in management, and when the markets sold those companies cheap, Warren and Charlie would buy a big position.  Then they went back to reading and researching every day... and they waited.  Once the market turmoil calmed down, people realized the solid companies were still solid companies, and stock prices went back up.  And so did the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway.  That's called "value investing," and Warren Buffet learned it from an early mentor.  Value investing is the exact opposite of what dumb ass Millennial investors (and dumb ass Gen Xers and Boomers), are doing right now, which is buying hype, not businesses.  They'll learn... pretty soon.

Berkshire Hathaway was originally a textile mill that Buffet invested in.  Later, he bought chunks of insurance companies, which got a lot of money coming in from premiums.  That money needed to be invested well, so the companies would have the money needed to pay for insurance claims.  Berkshire morphed into a holding company as the textile business faded, and Warren and Charlie just kept buying large positions in solid businesses, with well known brand names, when those businesses shares were selling cheap.  Even more weird, Buffet very rarely sells shares.  

But we're in really crazy times right now, largely unprecedented, even in the decades Warren and Charlie have been investing.  Buffet will turn 90 in a week, and Munger is 96 now.  They've seen A LOT.  These guys both were kids DURING the Great Depression.  They remember it, to some degree.  That's probably why they're sitting on about $140 billion in "cash" right now.  They know shit's gonna get a lot crazier in the next couple of years, and they're ready for some chaos. 

In the video above, we see Buffet sold their positions in several airlines.  OK, that makes sense right now, airlines are screwed for at least a couple of years.  He sold out of RBI (Burger King, Popeye's Chicken, and Tim Horton's in Canada).  Hmmmm, OK, restaurants are struggling I can see that one.  But then I saw Buffet sold a huge chunks of several banks.  OK, that's big, Warren and Charlie see trouble in banking in the future.  But they sold 100% of Goldman Sachs?  Wow.

Goldman Sachs is basically the investment bank that tells the U.S. government what to do with money.  Seriously.  Check out this article, current Treasury Department secretary Steve Mnuchin is a Goldman guy.  Steve Bannon worked for Goldman.  Former Goldman Sachs people have been Tresaury Secretaries, economic advisors, worked at The Fed.  No bank in recent times has had more influence on the U.S. government, than Goldman Sachs.  And Warren Buffet just sold ALL of Berkshire Hathaway's shares in Goldman Sachs.  Warren and Charlie see something pretty brutal coming our way to make a decision like that.  They've literally walked away from one of the 2 or 3 most powerful banks in the world.  Wow.  That's big.  

Oh, by the way, Berkshire Hathaway stock can be yours for $322,126 per share, right now, if you're interested...

The REAL U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 10% and 30%

The Money GPS puts out daily videos with a whole bunch of firsthand chart, stats, and articles, about the economy and current trends.  These can be depressing, but it's a lot of solid economic data from firsthand sources, and he includes the links so you can dig deeper into any issue, if you like.  For these reasons, I watch his videos every day.  

This Money GPS video from August 16th, 2020, shows a Shadow Stats chart about the different unemployment rates available today.  He shows the chart at 8:08, and talks about it.  Here's the chart from shadowstats.com.  

The red and gray lines are official statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The red line is the U3 unemployment rate, which primarily counts people who have recently applied for unemployment.  This is the unemployment rate you'll hear in the mainstream and business media, because they want things to look as positive as possible.  But it does not count everyone in the U.S. who's out of work, not even close.

The gray line is the BLS U6 unemployment number, down to about 16% to 17% right now.  This is also an official U.S. government stat, and includes people who may have been forced to work part time, but would prefer to work full time.

The blue line is the shadow stats number, which adds in the people could work, but are discouraged, or have given up looking for a traditional job, for whatever reason.  Before the year 1970 or so, there were very few people in this category, but the number has grown dramatically since, and no one knows exactly why.  

Think tank brainiac, and author, Nicolas Eberstadt, wrote a book on this group of people in 2016, called Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis (not a paid link).  Here's Eberstadt speaking on this topic, in 2017.  The number of these men was about 7 million then, and has grown since, by all accounts.  This number of long term unemployed people, not even looking for work, will most likely grow dramatically in the next couple of years. 

 Ebertadt says there is a growing number of women in this category, as well.  These are able bodied people, of working age, who are not even looking for work anymore.  Some of these people have felony records, and could not find good work after release from prison.  Many seem to be former low skilled factory workers who couldn't find decent employment after their local factories shut down, 10-20-30 years ago.  Many now get government checks, largely Social Security Disability.  I met dozens of these people when I was living in North Carolina, in the low income areas there.  All in all, very little is know about this huge group, and no one is really researching this issue in a serious way.  In addition, the nation's opiate addiction epidemic, is very highly tied to this group of people.

Whatever the cause, they are part of the "working age American" group, and they are unemployed over the long term.  So when you count the unemployed, if you want to be accurate, they should be counted.  Hell, I'm officially in this group, though I do freelance artwork, and and I'm working on building a viable business out of that.  

But the shadow stats number, now around 30% of the U.S. workforce, shows the most accurate total  number of working age people who are not working, for whatever reasons.  And that puts our current situation right up there with the numbers unemployed during the Great Depression of the 1930's.  Long term solution ideas should take this large group of people into account.

Even super smart Norway's wealth fund lost money this year...

 Having trouble making ends meet after these last crazy 6 months?  Don't feel bad.  Norway's huge sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, lost $21 billion.  According to this CNBC article today, the Norwegian fund, invested largely in North American stocks, lost a ton on its investments.  The fund is still sitting on 10.4 trillion NOK (Norwegian Kronor), about $1.144 trillion, if I did the math right.

Norway invests a huge portion of its oil and gas money into this fund, which is a big source of pride and assurance for the Norwegian people.  When it comes to long term financial thinking about the financial health and security of its people, Norway's probably the best country out there.  

On the flip side, Tesla founder Elon Musk's wealth gained $8 billion yesterday, as Tesla shares surged.  And the 2020 craziness keeps on going...

Seth Godin in August 2020: The Difference between leaders and managers

Business people everywhere are freaking out over all the change that's been thrown at them in the last 5 months.  Seth Godin has been telling business people about the change that's coming for about 35 years.  His blog has 7,000 posts or something like that.  He's written 20 books.  He's been trying new ideas and failing, and having some great successes the whole time.  

This podcast interview goes all over the place, in a good way.  But some big themes of it, where Seth has great insights, are the difference between being a leader, and being a manager.  There's a lot of change now, it's a good time to be a leader.  Another theme of this interview, is that artists and creative people are leaders.  They may not have a huge organization, but they open up "new territory" in some way.  Other people follow.

Another big theme of this interview, is the difference between talent and skill.  Are you willing to put in the time to learn whatever skills you need, in today's world? The concept "talent" is really overrated.  More than anything, a good talk with Seth Godin is full of all kinds of insights, and one or two of them may be exactly the insights you needed to hear today, to move forward in today's weird and fast changing business world.

"We're living with a whole bunch of revolutions at once." 

-Seth Godin, in this interview

Jim Rickards explains the velocity of money in 2 1/2 minutes

Here's one aspect of the economy I wasn't familiar with until seeing Robert Kiyosaki interview Jim a couple of month s ago.  In this quick video, from 2015, Jim quickly explains the "velocity of money," and how important it.  

In this crisis of the last few months, The Fed has created enormous amounts of money, but the money, for the most part, isn't moving through the everyday economy much at all.  These 3 1/2 trillion dollars or so, mostly went into the banking system, the stock market and to a lesser extent, real estate, propping up those markets.  

To create the inflation that The Fed is trying desperately to create, according to Jim, we also need more velocity of all this newly created money.  While stock traders are staying busy, most everyday people are holding back on a lot of extra spending, and just trying to pay the day to day bills.  The tens of millions of people who got laid off, or have taken pay cuts, or are working fewer hours, are struggling to just pay their rent or mortgages.  They are not spending near as freely, as far as we can tell now, than they were a year ago.  Will the velocity of money pick up?  We'll see how this all plays out in the next several months.

The difference between mass psychology and economics in predicting markets

Tom Petty's "Don't Come Around Here" video seems the perfect lead into this post.  In the economics and social world, we're down the rabbit hole, and everything is crazy and hard to predict right now.  But that just makes it more interesting...

For over 30 years now, when I explained to average people why I read a lot of business books, real estate books, futurist books like those by Alvin Toffler, and studied the Forbes 400 magazine every year, I would tell people I'm an "economics geek."  That shut people up, and they'd leave me alone.  Even traditional geeks don't want to talk economics.  I got interested in real estate in 1986, when I moved to Southern California, and the market was hot.  I thought it might be a way to earn extra money as a young man.  I started reading books on it, and kept following my interests, from there.  I never went to college, I'm self-educated in this respect.

Being totally shy, scared of losing money, and a horrible salesman as a young guy, I wasn't able to raise money, or earn enough, to buy any houses then.  In 1990, we went into a long recession, and I started getting more interested in the long term dynamics of real estate, business, and the financial markets.  I began to watch the stock and precious metals markets daily, just seeing what happened, and trying to figure out why it happened.  Rather than just "get rich," I wanted to grasp the long term dynamics of why different markets moved, and truly understand them.  Then I could eventually invest in things when prices were low, and wait until the values rose, and make a profit.  Without realizing it then, my natural way of thinking about business and investing was very similar to Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger's style of investing, at Berkshire Hathaway.  Study, watch, wait for the prices to drop on things with inherent value, and then pounce and buy.  Then wait for the markets to return, and prices to rise. 

Basically, I wanted to truly understand markets, so I could predict the future of where they were heading.  I predicted the 1993-94 interest rate spike that sent Orange County, California into bankruptcy.  By late 1998, I sat the DotCom stock craze was getting ridiculous, and started talking about the eventual crash, which everyone then thought would never come.  In 2000, it came.  By late 2005, the California real estate market was going nuts, and I thought the inevitable crash was a year or so away.  It took until 2008, but it came, big time.  In all of those events, I was living on a low budget, and had no money to invest, but the dynamics of markets still fascinated me.  I watched them from a distance, and kept reading, and kept learning. 

When I saw the forces building for this current economic downturn, back in 2017, I was able to watch things much closer, and share my thoughts in my personal blog.  I actually got threatened by a group, they were one step away from a lynch mob, because of my blogging, in North Carolina, in May of 2018.  Despite the threat of being beaten by clubs, I kept blogging about the economy (and art and Old School BMX).  Southern lynch mobs aren't used to people standing up to them, so the beatings didn't happen.  Instead I managed to spend three days in jail in solitary, for heinous act buying donuts (after being told to leave a store, 2nd degree trespassing), and then get sentenced to $600 in fines, 50 hours of community service, and a 30 day suspended sentence.  Pretty crazy for my first criminal offense, EVER, at age 51.  These charges were dropped a year after I left North Carolina.  The South is still The South.  But I digress...

Anyhow, with years of watching markets, a few hundred books read, and a growing understanding of market dynamics, I had more time, and the internet and YouTube for research, heading into this recession (now actually a depression, technically).  I decided to do my best to predict what I saw coming our way in the economy as this recession headed our way.

But this economic crisis is unlike any before in my life, or anyone's life.  We headed into this downturn already living in Economic Never Never Land.  Interest rates had been held incredibly low since the Great Recession.  Major corporations, many former Industrial Age blue chips among them, loaded up on debt billions of dollars in debt, in the low interest rate environment.  The Trump tax cuts, signed by the most corrupt president in modern history, were yet another windfall for major corporations, and high net worth people.  Meanwhile, government bonds around the world went negative in many countries, and were ultra-low (and still are) in the U.S..  All the while, since late 2008, The Fed has been propping up Big Business and Wall Street, with the low interest rates and  trillions of dollars in quantitative easing.  The Fed is the "crack dealer" letting cheap money flow to the major economic players, who are now addicted to cheap money.

 In addition, we have widespread smartphones, the internet, and a level of inter-personal and business connectivity never seen in human history.  The newer, high tech businesses cluster together in a handful of major metros, like the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, Boston, Seattle, L.A./SoCal, and Austin, Texas.  A huge percentage of the U.S. economy is centered in those metros, while rural, small town, and small city America struggled to recover form the Great Recession.  This helped create a huge economic polarity, which helped create a huge political polarity.  In the lead up to this current economic collapse, we had crazy stuff happening that most business people and economists had never seen before.  This wasn't going to be "just another recession."  It was all new territory, and nobody knew what would happen.  

In this chaotic mix, as stocks soared to all time highs on Fed created money in January, I predicted the unthinkable (here's that post), that the Dow would drop about 40%, and slide below 19,000 points.  It was at about 28,800 and rising when I made that prediction, and other predictions, in my blog post.  But I saw a change in momentum coming, soon.  Three weeks later, a "black swan event" came, the Covid-19 pandemic hit U.S. shores, and businesses were forced to shut down for a couple of months.  My "crazy" predictions for the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2,000, all came true within 8 weeks.  I missed on my Nasdaq prediction, because that's where investors put their money as the market dropped.

Then shit went crazy, because the official financial world didn't see this crisis coming.  Most of the "experts" didn't think there would even be a mild recession in 2020.  As most people sheltered at home, the business news channels tried to make sense of what was going on.  Being homeless, I struggled to simply find places to power up my laptop, and then find wifi spots I could use.  You can't shlter at home, when you don't have a home.  In yet another crazy aspect to the 2020 stock market crash, it was me, a homeless man, who accurately predicted the crash, and the depth of the crash.  Nothing makes sense now.

As the reality of the pandemic, and the much needed, but financially catastrophic, business closures set in, everyone in the business media tried to figure out what happened. Then they try to find some happy ending to this mess.  Everyone had opinions, and economists and public officials weighed in on this growing crisis.  By late April, I was able to start consuming these ideas from others, and to try to find accurate information on what was actually happening.  

I quickly began to figure out that, as I predicted the interest rate spike in 1993-94, the coming DotCom crash in 2000, and the real estate crash/Great Recession in 2008, I wasn't using hard number, nuts and bolts economics to make my preicitons.  Most of what I was looking at was actually the mass psychology of investors, and the public at large.  I did look at all kinds of economic trends, but I never got deep into the actual numbers.  

So I've been learning more about actual economics, as I tried to figure out where we're going now.  Economics is the study of financial data (technically, the study of "scarce resources").  But economists are notoriously not known for accurate predictions.  They look at the data after events happen, and analyze what happened.  I wanted to understand the dynamics, dig into the myriad of forces at play in the financial markets, and then be able to get a good idea of what's coming next. 

Ideally, I will actually have resources to invest at some point, and make some money off of my thinking. My drive has always been to try and figure out what's coming next.  And all that thinking led me to seeing a bunch of forces at work, social trends, social cycles, and things no one else pays attention to.  But financial markets, even completely manipulated markets, like the stock markets right now, held up entirely by Fed money creation, are still a result of human psychology.  Humans look at things, they make decisions and take actions, or don't take action.  Lots of actions, driven by mass psychology, drive the markets.  When the thinking in a large group of people changes, markets change soon after.  And when you study the trends, and try to figure out what idea caused a market change, you begin to get an idea where things will head in the coming days, weeks, months, and years.  

So I don't really tell people I'm an "economics geek" anymore.  I'm really a futurist, fascinated by Big Picture social dynamics and economics.  I try to accurately see the long term, mid term, and short term social trends going on, and get a grasp on the dynamics of these different trends, and how they affect and interact with each other.  Then I look at the economics world, and lay the economic trends on top of my world view of social trends.  That gives me some sense of where things are going.  That's how I made the call that the Dow would drop below 19,000 in January, when most people were expecting Dow 30,000 and Dow 35,000 soon after.  My thinking is a lot more like the late futurist Alvin Toffler, and his wife Heidi, than it's like Paul Krugman's, for example.  

I came to my conclusion that we're heading into an actual great depression from underlying, long term, social trends, combined with economic trends.  I'm working on putting the basic idea into a concise report.  But there are so many tangents and offshoots to what's happening today, that I'm going to dive deeper into pieces of the big picture in this blog.  This was not the blog post I sat down to write, but I hope it helps you readers get a better idea on where I'm coming from.  Much more to come...

Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff both see $15,000 gold as a possibility

This Kitco interview from July 31, 2020, has a couple of the best guys to listen about gold.  Gold just hits its all time high in dollars, though it's still a bit below the inflation adjusted high from  2011.  Is gold a bubble about to pop?  Or does it have room to run as the dollar get devalued?  Both of these guys see gold likely going much higher in the next few years, and see $15,000 and ounce gold by 2025 a serious possibility.  

Part 2 of this interview

Part 3 of this interview 

Peter Schiff, who's been predicting the collapse of the dollar for 15 or 20 years or more, takes over at the end of part 3 of the interview, and doesn't let Jim finish explaining his idea on the "velocity of money," which is an important concept to understand right now.  So here's a quick video of Jim Rickards explaining the idea.

Ray Dalio says cash is trash

In a quick history lesson, well known investor Ray Dalio compares our current economy to the 1930's era.  "We're in a new paradigm."

The many waves of The Phoenix Great Depression

This is The Wedge, in Newport Beach, California, on BIG day.  This video is about the best analogy I can think of for today's economic world.  One big, gnarly, dangerous waves after another.  The main plan is to not get destroyed by the economic waves, and then, try to ride one or two of them, if you can.

Last night I watched several CNBC interviews with top economists, about where the economy, and our financial world is headed.  None of them really seem to have a good grasp on the Big Picture.  Yes, I'm calling out Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz, and several others.  These are all very smart guys, and they have good insights on pieces of what's happening.  But none seems able to predict the world that a handful of top investors see coming.  For months, in some cases years now, top business guys and investors, like Ray Dalio, Robert Kiyosaki, Jim Rogers, and a few more, have been talking about a historic level economic downturn.  OK, now we are definitely in it, and as of yesterday, this officially qualifies as an economic depression (see last blog post).  So... what's going to happen now?  And how long will this last?  The top economists don't have good answers to these questions.

Here's my take on today's economic mess.  First, as I wrote a few weeks ago, I've been watching several ultra long term trends, cycles, and shorter term trends, converge in recent years.  I spelled out the basic idea in this blog post, and a few earlier ones.  With so many major issues happening all at once in the economic/business world, and then the pandemic hitting hard on top of that, I saw several years of tough economic times heading our way.  I've been blogging about some of these issues for three years now, like in this post, from June 2017.

There are so many different things that need to get worked out in this economic downturn, that I think it will feel much like the video of The Wedge, above.  One big gnarly economic wave after another.   
Here are the "waves" that have hit in the last 11 months:

-September 2019- The Repo Market seized up- The little known repo market, a sort of "pawn shop" for major banks and shadow banking businesses to get overnight loans, froze up.  The Fed had to jump in to try and save it, by creating billions of dollars, and throwing that money into these markets, so banks and lenders needing short term loans could keep getting them.  What started as a "week or two" of "adding liquidity to the markets" turned into $20 to $100 billion A DAY being shoved into the financial system, to keep it from collapsing.  Most of America paid little attention to this issue.
-February/March2020- Stock Market collapse triggered by Covid-19 Pandemic/business shutdown- The financial world was teetering all last winter, but stocks surged, as The Fed pumped tens of billions daily into Wall Street and the banking system to shore up the Repo Markets.  No bad news had much effect, a true sign of market euphoria.  Then the pandemic hit U.S. shores, and national leadership didn't take it seriously.  The completely inept, and late response to the pandemic has now led to the deaths of over 157,000 Americans.  Though much needed for public safety, the mandatory business shutdown that has threatened millions of businesses, small, medium, and large.  Several large businesses, and many smaller ones, have already gone bankrupt, and 25,000 stores are expected to close this year, far more than double the number that closed last year, the highest number ever.  Because of this GDP dropped 32.9%, the biggest quarterly drop on record, EVER, in the second quarter of 2020.  This has put the U. S. in completely unknown territory, economically. 
April 2020 on- The first wave of business bankruptcies- Among the big names that have entered bankruptcy, are Pier 1 Imports, J.Crew, Lucky's grocery stores, Neiman Marcus, J.C. Penney's, GNC, Chuck E Cheese, Brooks Brothers, California Pizza Kitchen, and Hertz along with many other smaller businesses.  Most of America's major corporations (except for the tech giants), were near insolvency in March and April, but the bailouts saved them... for now.  There will be thousands more businesses going bankrupt as the other "waves" crash on our shore.

June 2020- Tens of millions of Americans are laid off, 40-50 million so far/unemployment claims spike to historic levels- While most of these layoffs were deemed "temporary" at first, it's obvious that a huge number of these will be permanent.  The Fed and Congress has thrown 3 1/2 to 4  trillion dollars into the economy, most to major corporations, but a large amount into extra unemployment payments.  This bought the country time.  But the time is ending right now, as the $600 extra unemployment payments end.

Now, what other huge waves are headed our way?  This is where the economists either are afraid to make forecasts, or are simply not sure what will happen soon.  To be fair, economists, by nature, study what has already happened, not what might happen soon.  This is where I come in.  Here are several of the major "waves" I see headed our way.

-August-November 2020- The first big wave of evictions and foreclosures- (28 million people are on the verge of eviction according to this report).  The moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures just ended, along with those extra unemployment checks.  This inaction by Congress is putting the very survival of the United States of America at risk, holding back help for tens of millions of people who are in survival mode now, trying to figure out what to do.

-September- December 2020- Residential real estate market heads downward- This wave of evictions and foreclosures will begin to tip the residential real estate market downward, into a major collapse nationwide.  The major metros, where real estate prices are highest, like New York City, San Francisco Bay area, L.A., and others, will probably get hit the hardest, at first.  The trillions of dollars pumped into the financial markets buoyed up residential real estate these last few months, but that's ending soon.  We'll see sales and prices begin to drop in the remaining months of 2020, and plummet in in 2021, in most areas.  As I said, the major cities, with highest prices, will be hit first and hardest, but will also be the most likely to recover first, in 3 to 5 years or so, in my opinion.  Why will it takes so long?  Because there are a whole lot of other things that need to shake out, besides overly high real estate prices.  Those things are subjects of other posts in this blog, and more coming in the future.

The wave of upscale people leaving cities and working from home, is much hyped right now, and is a factor.  But once we get a Covid-19 vaccine, or quality treatment, I think major metro areas, particularly those with lots of high tech, will try to rebound.  Those same cities will also have a lot more people homeless, in poverty, and struggling, at the same time.  Dealing with these issues may delay a rebound.  Smaller cities, towns, and rural areas will struggle much harder, and for much longer.  We will see a bunch of mid-sized and smaller cities get hit the way Detroit got hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs, many years ago.  This will be due to a lot of colleges and universities going bankrupt, and perhaps cities themselves.  This, again, is an issue for other blog posts, coming soon.

-September-December 2020- Retail and commercial real estate market really begins to fall- Obviously, this has been happening for years, to some extent, we've all heard of the Retail Apocalypse, by now.  But now we will have millions of square feet of office space open up, and ripple effects through mixed use, warehouse, and industrial properties.  You've probably heard the term "Dead Mall," by now.  For years, 400 or so of the nation's 1100+ shopping malls have been expected to close down eventually. A small number have, and some have been repurposed.  But I think this amplified closing of an estimated 25,000 retails stores this year will start the malls to tumbling.  We'll probably see 400 to 600 enclosed malls close down by 2025.  Thousands of smaller shopping centers will have vacancy issues, as well.  On the positive side, the malls expected to fair the best are the very high end malls, and the low end ones, where lots of lower income people shop.  Generally speaking, those people are much less likely to buy a lot of items online, to be delivered.  It's the mid-range malls (and cities) that are most likely to struggle.

Future economic "waves" coming at some point:

-Some kind of debt collapse in the SLABS (Student Loan Asset Backed Securities) market, the CLO's (Collateralized Loan Obligations), and the CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) markets- All three of these are similar to the Subprime mortgage securities that triggered the 2008 economic collapse.

-Crisis in auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer debt that's not being paid right now.

-Huge protests and social unrest caused by the millions of people who will likely drop into poverty in the coming months and years- Major healthcare and social programs will be needed to deal with this, much like the 1930's.


-The College Apocalypse- The collapse of the student loan system, along with the pandemic slowing down enrollments, AND the huge loss of revenue from college sports during the pandemic, will bankrupt colleges and universities.  Dozens of small colleges have closed or merged, for other reasons, in recent years.  But this financial crisis will cause major disruption to the whole college system, and I think we'll see a "College Apocalypse," something like the current Retail Apocalypse, starting in late 2021, and throughout the 2020's.  This will cripple cities dependent on colleges and universities, as well.  Higher education will have to re-invent itself for the 21st century, and the Information Age.

There will be others... but that's enough to bum you all out right now.  Watch that video above again, and remember that metaphor. 

This is OFFICIALLY a Depression now: 2020 Q2 GDP drops a record 32.9%

The U.S. GDP dropped 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020, with numbers out this morning.  There were already many issues in the economy, like the Repo Market seize up in September 2019, before the second quarter came around.  But it was the Covid-19/coronavirus pandemic shutdown that was the "black swan event" that really sent things downhill.  For those not up on economics, the GDP is the Gross Domestic Product, basically all goods and services bought in the U.S. the second quarter, April, May, and June, of 2020.  The next biggest drop was about 28%... back in 1921.  Even in The Great Depression of the 1930's, no single quarter's economy dropped this much.

I love how the CNBC hosts say, "It wasn't as bad as the 34.7% drop expected."  That's a lot like saying, "Today I expected to catch Covid-19, have a car accident, get mauled by a grizzly bear, get hit by an asteroid, and be in a plane crash.  And I ONLY got in a plane crash, caught Covid-19, and got attacked by a small bear, so it wasn't as bad as expected."  It's that ridiculous. 

If you look at the "definitions" section for an economic depression on this Wikipedia page, you'll see one of two things define an economic "depression."  Either there's a recession that lasts for 2 years or more (Investopedia and the traditional definition is 3 years), OR there's a 10% decline in GDP.  Today's numbers tripled that level.  Again, we had a 32.9% drop in GDP.  So, like it or not, this economic downturn is OFFICIALLY a depression.  When this time is written about in history, it will be called a depression, or a maybe great depression, if it lasts more than five years. 

I'll be fair, this depression would have happened if anyone was president.  Donald Trump didn't cause the depression.  But the Trump administration did do things that made it worse.  The completely inept reaction to the pandemic when it first hit U.S. shores has not only killed thousands more Americans than it would have, but it is making the economic situation far worse, in the long term.  The Trump tax cuts were a windfall for the uber-rich and major corporations, and that helped prop up a weak economy for many more months.  Because the recession that should have started in 2017 or 2018 was held off, markets went much higher, and financial bubbles got much bigger.  Because of that, the economy had (and still has) much farther to drop. 

Also, when Fed chair Jerome Powell started raising interest rates in late 2016, and into 2017, pressure was put on him to reverse course, because higher interest rates were freaking out the stock market.  At that time, Powell was trying to get interest rates from a historical low position, to a more "normal" level, which would give The Fed more ways to deal with the next recession.  But he suddenly reversed course, apparently under heavy pressure from the  White House and others, and eventually lowered rates, to help prop up stocks and other financial markets.  This also propped up a weak economy that desperately needed a serious correction, a recession. So when a crash did finally come, it was a much worse one than it would have been if it hit in 2017 or 2018. 

So why does it make a difference if we're in a recession or a depression?  A depression is simply more intense, and will likely last quite a bit longer.  Simply acknowledging that we're in a "depression," should make people think more intensely about how to survive and work out of it.  It should also get us to look at this as a longer term, serious issue, not just something that will work itself out in six months.  The downside is that a lot of people freak out when they hear "depression."  And people are freaked out already. 

My personal opinion is that it's better to state it clearly, accept that this is a major deal, and then get to work looking for solutions in all the issues facing us, like 28 million people on the verge of eviction.  We don't need millions more people on the streets or living in cars suddenly.  But our jacked up political system likes to spin things, even serious things, hoping the problems will go away if they can convince enough people it's not that bad.  Politicians can call this whatever they want, but if you get an eviction notice, shit gets serious... real quick. 

This is a serious economic crisis.  It's not being handled well, though the trillions of dollars The Fed has created have helped big business, wealthy people, and many recently unemployed people... for a while.  But this help comes at a huge cost later on, in the form of heavy inflation, possibly full blown hyper-inflation.  We need to put on our Big Boy and Big Girl pants and work out some really big solutions soon to some really big problems, and get a handle on keeping struggling people housed, finding new jobs, saving small businesses, and everything else we're dealing with. 

Here's my recent blog post explaining why I started calling this economic downturn The Phoenix Great Depression several months ago.  There are a lot of really long term trends and cycles converging, making this much more than a typical recession.

CNBC asks if we're in a great depression, citing huge big city unemployment numbers 7/21/20

In this CNBC article from last Tuesday, they actually printed the words "Great Depression," on CNBC.  Believe me, that's a big moment when they admit that's a possibility.  The reason the article asks the question is because of the huge unemployment numbers in major cities right now.  Here are the June unemployment numbers from the article:

New York City- 20.4% unemployment

Los Angeles- 19.5%

Chicago- 16.1%, 

Detroit (it went up)- 17.7%. 

Real unemployment stats are likely higher, only people actively seeking employment, and signing up for unemployment get counted.  There were at least 7 million working age men not officially working and not looking for work before all of this started (Eberstadt- "Men Without Work"), and unemployment doesn't include a lot of independent workers, gig workers, small business people not working because or mandatory closures, people with reduced hours, or people who've accepted pay cuts.  In all likelihood, we're probably near or over the 25% unemployment threshold of The Great Depression of the 1930's, if everyone could actually be tallied up. 

The article says there's no real definition of "great depression."  According to economist Ravi Batra's books, which I read in 1989-1990, there is, or at least was, a definition.  A recession is an economic contraction (total economy shrinks) for two consecutive quarters, meaning 6 months.  A depression is an economic contraction for 3 years, OR a 10% drop in GDP.  We may see a 10%+ drop in GDP in the official Q2 numbers coming out next week, July 30-31.  A great depression, by the traditional definition is an economic contraction for 5 years or more. 

My personal opinion, and the reason I've been writing on this subject for about 3 years now, is because I think we're at the start of a true depression, and it will feel like a full blown great depression of 3-5, and likely 7 years, of tough economic times.  Since the traditional definition has been abandoned, I don't know what this economic downturn will be called, but it will be a long tough ride for most Americans.  BUT, recessions and depressions are also a great time of innovation, new business ideas, new industries emerging, and a lot of opportunities hidden in the economic mess.

28 Million Americans Face Eviction- CNBC article 7/24/2020

According to this CNBC article today, 28 million Americans face eviction.  Uh... yeah... that's not good.  Landlords are encouraged (by someone, apparently) to "be creative."  I wonder if the banks and lenders the apartment owners owe money to are also encouraged to be creative. 

This short article cites a recent survey of apartment owners, 60% of whom said their tenants can't make rent payments.  All of their tenants?  Or some of them?  It doesn't say.  In any case, here's another ginormous number in a bad category, possible evictions, giving us some sense of just how many people are seriously struggling to stay housed after the craziness of the past few months.

Why I believe we're in the beginning of a great depression, not a "quick" recession

This video was made in March 2020, when the stock market was hitting its first big bottom, and before most of the $3 TRILLION+ in bailouts really began.  But this video gives a great view of how big and widespread this economic crisis is.  This depth and breadth of this crisis is one major reason this will be a long downturn.

From my point of view, having followed and watched several long term social trends for many years, I see a long, rough, economic downturn for several other reasons.  There is a convergence right now of several long term trends and major social changes, it's not just an "normal" economic recession that lasts 12-18 months.

Here is one of the big social upheavals I've been watching evolve for years, which almost no one even knows is going on.  This is The Third Wave concept explained by the late futurist Alvin Toffler in his 1980 book, The Third Wave.  The basic idea is very simple, the Industrial Age dominated by factories in every town is ending, and the Information Age is being built.  At one level, we all know that.  It's like, "Duh, of course!"  To most people, this transition happened a long time ago.  The factories shut down, a lot of small cities and towns struggled, and now we're in the Information Age.

But we're only PARTLY in the Information Age.  Yes, nearly every person has a smart phone now, we don't share a phone with a cord attached to the kitchen phone like when I was a kid.  We have streaming music, not CD's or vinyl records played on a record player.  But our education system,  K-12, is still an Industrial Age model.  Our legal system, our criminal justice system, our political parties and system, they are all systems created in the Industrial Age.  A lot of our old, major, industrial, "blue chip" businesses, are still largely working on underlying Industrial Age models.  Our entire college/university system is still a model from the Industrial Age.  Our local, state, and federal government bodies and agencies are still working on Industrial Age models.  Yes, these all use new technologies, but the underlying systems and models they are based on, are still Industrial Age models.

Each of these businesses, governments, industries, or systems, will break down, and be disrupted, the same way Napster completely disrupted the music industry in 1999.  This can either happen by people of the old model, intentionally re-inventing the old system, or completely new people inventing a new, Information Age system.  Most of the time, it will be the second option.  Thinking of the retail industry, Sears, the longtime major department store didn't see the potential of online shopping, and Jeff Bezos, who started Amazon, did.  Bezos started a new model, and now, about 25 years later, Amazon is gigantic, and Sears is bankrupt.  This basic scenario WILL happen to every part of society that it hasn't happened to yet.  It's simply happening because new technologies making an entirely new business model or system possible.

This transition of everything, from the Industrial Age model, to the Information Age model, started slowly in about 1956, according to Alvin Toffler.  The speed of this change has gradually increased, and now change is happening very rapidly.  When it comes to 2020, this economic downturn is accelerating the level of this change.  So we not only have a major economic recession, which started last September (Repo crisis), AND we have a major, 100 year pandemic, which has killed over 142,000 Americans, as of this morning.  In addition to THAT craziness, those things are dramatically escalating the pace of change in the remaining Industrial Age businesses, governments at the local, state, and federal level, and systems  of other kinds.  In every system, business, or industry, these are HUGE, massive changes, and many of the old businesses wind up closing down, like chain stores in the Retail Apocalypse.  This level of change, happening in so many different places at once, cannot possible happen in 12-18 months.  Most... MOST of those major Industrial Age businesses were practically insolvent in March 2020.  These major businesses, an Wall Street, have been propped up by somewhere around $3 trillion, just to keep them afloat, so they can try to recover.  But this completely unprecedented level of bailouts WILL ALSO dramatically lengthen this recession/depression (it is officially a recession, for now). 

So this is just one of several major social trends and cycles happening, and CONVERGING, at this point in time.  The Third Wave aspect alone would turn a serious recession (6-18 months) into a depression (3 years or 10% GDP drop) or a great depression (5 year economic downturn). 

So that is PART of the reason I'm calling this economic collapse The Phoenix Great Depression.  It will be VERY deep.  It will last several years, with different economic indices going up and down at times, and it includes a level of societal change, and speed of change, unheard of in human history.  The "phoenix" part is the rebuilding of a new, viable society as we work through these many changes, at many levels, happening all at once. 

NYC apartment vacancies rise 85%

This has been reported a bit already, the pandemic has sent a lot of New York City renters scurrying for the suburbs or less dense regions.  My personal opinion is that, it's freakin' New York City, wealthy people will come back once a vaccine is available and in wide use, and they can get back to "normal" big city life.  But for now, vacancies in NYC apartments are up 85%.  Rent prices are insane there, we've all heard that, and now they're coming down, and I think we'll see more of this in coming months. 

Basically, this appears to be the start of a much needed price correction in NYC rentals, and we'll probably see similar data soon show up in other major cities.  The beneficiaries right now are the smaller communities upscale city dwellers are flocking to.  With things moving so fast these days, other than Long Island and parts of the Hudson Valley, I haven't heard where else city dwellers are moving to.  Again, like the previous post, we'll see how this current trend plays out.

Big Banks set billions aside to deal with bad consumer loans

In this Bloomberg article, "A $35 Billion Bite From U.S. Banks May Be Only The Start," the spin doctors seem like they're trying to make you dizzy.  One one hand, the article explains that major banks have set about $35 billion aside to deal with delinquent loans that may be coming their way.  On the other hand, comes the "everything's fine" spiel you get form mainstream outlets.  Unemployment is up, but "seriously delinquent loans" are down in the last couple months.  Um... yeah, because The Fed has thrown over $3 trillion or of created money into first the repo market, then many other aspects of the economy, in the past 9 months, something never done in history.  At the same time, because of the intense nature of the virus shutdown, banks and lenders have been going to great lengths to offer forbearance and other terms to help the millions of people laid off, with lowered pay, and struggling to pay all kinds of debts. 

This article reminds me a lot of the early rumblings of the subprime mortgage mess in 2008.  We have at least three major forms of debt that have been packaged and sold as investments, very much like the subprime mortgage backed securities and CDO's in 2008.  The three main ones I'm aware of are Student Loan Asset Backed Securities (SLABS), Commercial Lending Obligations (CLO's), and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS).  We'll see where this leads...