What goes up, must come down. A little Blood, Sweat & Tears (lots of tears), for you today.
I'm back from a few days of not thinking about the economy, and the depression we are now 11 months into. Ip'm utting my ass on the line again, with some hard number, hard date predictions. Here they are.
The Nasdaq will drop below 8,000 points BEFORE November 3rd, 2020
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 20,000 points BEFORE November 3rd, 2020.
The S&P 500 will drop below 2,500 points BEFORE November 3rd
Call if the Trump Dump, if you need a catchy nickname. Or not, he didn't cause this, he just helped make it worse.
Will these ridiculous predictions come true? Of course not, as anyone in the market right now. "It will never go down!" Right? We'll see.
By the way, here are my last set of ridiculous predictions. No one in any serious position of expertise thought ANY of these would happen in 2020 when I wrote this post. Three of the nine predictions have come true, and they were all for calendar year 2020, so there's four months left to see if any of the others happen. Once again, let's hope I'm wrong...
Remember to vote for someone, for every office open, on November 3rd.
This is a CNBC report from March 9th, 2020, as stocks plummeted on Covid-19 shutdown fears, AND a whole slew of longer, underlying factors. The Dow was down about 1,700+ points at the time of this report. The Dow bottomed out at around 18,500, a couple weeks later.
Here's my 2020 predictions blog post, from my (now retired) personal blog, written on January 26,2020. The Dow was around 28,700 and still heading up, the Friday before I wrote this post. In that post, I predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would drop below 19,000 at some point in 2020. I also made predictions for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2,000. Of those four predictions, all but the Nasdaq prediction have actually come true. And we're just 6 1/2 months into 2020.
I'll go into more detail on how and why I made those predictions as this blog goes on. But there's a simple rule I learned in the late 90's, about commodity charts. It also generally applies to the stock markets. When a long bull market ends, the price drops approximately 50% of the entire bull market run. So if you take this last bull market in the Dow, check this chart, (click to "Max" timeline), and figure the points risen from February 2009 low, to the peak in February, 2020. Cut that number in half, and subtract it from the Dow's peak in February 2020, of 29,551. The Dow should drop to roughly17,800, at some point. You can do the same thing to the other index charts. I padded my predictions a bit, knowing that there may be one big drop, a likely rally for a while as the inevitable bailouts kick in, and very likely another, lower drop, at some point in the future. I was just trying to predict the initial big drop.
Once a long term bull market is over, in commodities or stocks, the markets are turbulent, and basically pretty much impossible to predict, for quite a while. This usually turns into a wide trading range for some time. In today's Dow, for example, I think we'll see a big, long trading range from roughly 23,000 to 28,000, up and down, for another 1-3 years. There SHOULD be 1 or 2 more big, DEEP drops, to Dow 17,800 or so. But that might not happen because The Fed is basically willing to completely devalue the dollar (eventually) to prop up all the major U.S. corporations and banks that were functionally insolvent in March, after the stock plunge.
In any case, the stock market is basically a gambler's market, for the next year, at least, and probably 2-3 years. Yes, there will be incredible bargains for long term investors, like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger at Berkshire Hathaway. But you're not Warren or Charlie.
In addition to that, with so many other factors happening in the economy, like real estate collapse that's coming, the continued retail apocalypse, precious metals rising, and more bankruptcy auctions coming than ever in human history, I think there will be thousands of amazing opportunities for small and mid-level investors, that will be much more lucrative than stocks over the next 1-3 years. So that's why I wouldn't touch the stock markets now, if I was in a position to invest a serious amount of money.
