Friday, July 24, 2020

CNBC asks if we're in a great depression, citing huge big city unemployment numbers 7/21/20

In this CNBC article from last Tuesday, they actually printed the words "Great Depression," on CNBC.  Believe me, that's a big moment when they admit that's a possibility.  The reason the article asks the question is because of the huge unemployment numbers in major cities right now.  Here are the June unemployment numbers from the article:
New York City- 20.4% unemployment
Los Angeles- 19.5%
Chicago- 16.1%, 
Detroit (it went up)- 17.7%. 

Real unemployment stats are likely higher, only people actively seeking employment, and signing up for unemployment get counted.  There were at least 7 million working age men not officially working and not looking for work before all of this started (Eberstadt- "Men Without Work"), and unemployment doesn't include a lot of independent workers, gig workers, small business people not working because or mandatory closures, people with reduced hours, or people who've accepted pay cuts.  In all likelihood, we're probably near or over the 25% unemployment threshold of The Great Depression of the 1930's, if everyone could actually be tallied up. 

The article says there's no real definition of "great depression."  According to economist Ravi Batra's books, which I read in 1989-1990, there is, or at least was, a definition.  A recession is an economic contraction (total economy shrinks) for two consecutive quarters, meaning 6 months.  A depression is an economic contraction for 3 years, OR a 10% drop in GDP.  We may see a 10%+ drop in GDP in the official Q2 numbers coming out next week, July 30-31.  A great depression, by the traditional definition is an economic contraction for 5 years or more. 

My personal opinion, and the reason I've been writing on this subject for about 3 years now, is because I think we're at the start of a true depression, and it will feel like a full blown great depression of 3-5, and likely 7 years, of tough economic times.  Since the traditional definition has been abandoned, I don't know what this economic downturn will be called, but it will be a long tough ride for most Americans.  BUT, recessions and depressions are also a great time of innovation, new business ideas, new industries emerging, and a lot of opportunities hidden in the economic mess.

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